Friday, July 17, 2020


Pandemic of Foolishness

By Bob Travica

How do you feel about the way your political and public health leaders are treating you in this COVID-19 pandemic? To be honest, I often feel like a kid being put through toilet training. Stay at home, don't wear a mask, wash your hands, self-isolate, keep a distance, put a mask on, drink bleach, take hydroxychloroquine, don't get tested if you aren't sick, don’t take hydroxychloroquine, get tested, get to work, work from home, the situation is under control, we're in the midst of the pandemic!…

As he's grown a beard and a few silver hairs, the Canadian Prime minister resembles a musketeer from Alexander Duma's stories and he commands via government-paid ads: "Go home and stay at home!" After healing the nation with chlorine bleach and other ingenious medicaments, the American President shouts: "Reopen business, reopen schools, come to my rallies, goddammit!" As he put all his intellect in explaining COVID as "little flu", the Brazilian President eventually caught that "little flu" and said he felt fine because he was taking hydroxychloroquine. This is after his thought-leader, the American President, stopped taking this malaria drug.

The British Prime Minister also thought of COVID as just another flu and then he spent days in the intensive care. Undeterred, he recently kicked kids back in school and allowed the soccer and rugby seasons to continue, of course, with players respecting physical distance. If all this is no sufficient insult to your intelligence, consider the Tanzanian President who "proved" that COVID tests are not to be trusted; he said that he smuggled fake samples in a testing lab, and "the lab came back with positive COVID test results for papaya, a quail, and a goat"!

The medical authorities were not shy of making blunders and blinding us along the way.  The World Health Organization (WHO) toyed with the virus name from the very start of the outbreak in China. Instead of calling it "SARS Coronavirus 2" which it is, the knowledge gatekeepers decided to omit the "SARS" part. Their reasoning: Folks can get scared, so let's keep them in blessed ignorance. With a stroke of the pen, the WHO leaders confused billions of people! It's like saying, that thing growing on your cheek is just a mole, while it's actually melanoma. But a medical lobby in Sweden took this blunder for truth. The chief epidemiologist told his folks they were specially built unlike the rest of humanity, so their body was going to beat the virus on its own. The folks cheered: Hey, we rock and we won't be locked down! It turned out the special folks were getting sick and dying just like the rest of us. Sweden tops the world on the death rate, sharing the ring with Belgium, the UK, Italy, and Spain. 

We were never told really, why it's necessary to wash hands so often. If we work from home and venture out only for essential shopping, why should we wash hands all the time? Does the virus creep under the door, fly in through open windows, parachute down the chimney? Maybe the "washing hands" order is a handy filler when not much else is being done? The authorities feel well as they kinda do something along leadership lines, and we feel well too for kinda doing something for self-protection.  

"Masks aren't necessary except in the vicinity of sick persons. Masks give a false sense of safety. Masks don't really protect yourself. Masks can do more harm than good when handled improperly… Masks are useful, necessary, everybody should wear them... The reason why we didn’t advice masks earlier is that we wanted to save the limited supply of these for health workers…"

For months, we've been subdued to this confusing saga. In fact, it's been so much of the masks-rambling that a bystander could conclude that this is the most important issue in the whole pandemic. Couldn't the health authorities just take a quick look at countries where this pandemic started and conclude in no time that wearing masks is mandatory over there? Hey, those guys got it after battling SARS years ago! Why such arrogance and mindlessness even on part of the WHO? We the folks ain't that stupid. Well, if we don’t figure it out from the TV coverage of what's going on in China and those parts, we're certainly familiar with cowboys in Western movies and their inevitable bandanas. A cowboy would put a bandana over his nose and mouth while corralling the cattle. That had to do something with breathing, didn't it? 

And who in the state of sanity would not want to protect health workers, the life-saviors? But face coverings didn't need to be taken away from them. Hey, we could make them! Whoa, what a novel concept for health experts! Instead of convincing us firsthand that we didn’t need masks, they should have taught us how to make them. Science finds that a decent home-made covering is comparable in effectiveness to the mass-sold surgical type of mask. Both filter our breath. If everybody filters their breath, everybody is protected.

"Get tested, as everybody can do it now!" No doubt that advisors up the power ladder can. But then a former White House official discovers that there's no test for his child and so we, the folks, get dumbfounded. And scared. It's not really little flu, our leaders turned rambling about things-pandemic into business as usual, and by "everybody can get tested" they primarily refer to themselves. They don't even bother to make it clear what the testing is for. For the infection? For antibodies? For the current antibodies or for the long-term ones? In official stats, they lump together all these different tests for different purposes. And we feel safer watching a growing number of tests.

When I'm given a break from toilet training, I feel like papaya from the alleged Tanzanian lab.






Thursday, December 27, 2018

Takeaways from Trumpism


By Bob Travica

In all likelihood, the U.S. President Donald Trump will be impeached. Between the reality shows “Apprentice” (a.k.a. “You are fired”) and “Russian Connection”, I wrote about (http://cogito-bob.blogspot.com/2017/ ), the latter is going to prevail. The special counsel Muller has been drilling down diligently for months, turning the President’s allies into enemies and inching toward indicting Trump for obstruction of justice.

Part of news media have contributed immensely to the reality “Russian Connection” and spearheaded the impeachment cry. Enter the loss of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Still angry over the loss of presidential elections in 2016, there is no doubt that Democrats will make Trump’s impeachment a top priority once they take over the House.

In result, the lay-off addict that’s occupying the Oval Office has got cornered. In the ironic turn of events, he will be fired.

Resume of Trumpism

There can be little doubt that Trump is not cut to be President as we know it. A hard-handed business boss, he’s got no stomach for the usual political wheeling and dealing and a schmoozing double-talk. He can’t keep his cool and his tongue under control. Trump has assumed the country (and its international extensions) to be his private enterprise that he could run at will. He has ruled by presidential decrees and uttered “you’re fired” to a level insane even for a privately owned business. And yes, he’s made lots of noise, ahem trumpery, via tweeting and in other ways.

Overall, the Trumpian hard-handed governance put at a test the institutions of check-and-balance in the American political system. True, he didn’t bring his horse into the Congress yet, as an emperor in the ancient Rome did. But this is perhaps so just because Trump didn’t really frequent the place.

Joking aside, the end result of two years of Trumpism seem clear. In spite of all the Caesarism and combativeness, Trump’s remake of Reagan’s “Let’s make America great (again)” has yielded just some poultry results. Repatriation of American business and profits remains as elusive as it’s been throughout the globalization era. Consequently, the trend of impoverishing the American lower classes hasn’t been reversed.

The promised reforming of health care (Obama-care) failed. Actually, this is good news for the underprivileged masses who for the first time in history experienced benefits that are normal in developed countries. Also on the domestic political scene, Trumpism stirred up the immigration policies only to create chaos, triggering unpleasant imagery of great walls and iron curtains.

Overall, Trumpism failed to shake up the Washington establishment. Acting on the premise that the federal political institutions were broke and needed fixing, Trump just managed to scratch the system. 

Trump didn’t truly undermine the entrenched echelons of power resting on the extensive intelligence sector, the special interest-stringed news media, and umbilical links between the Congress and corporations. Trump actually irritated and antagonized the key players, and got them united against himself.  The consolidation of shadowy power centers may have long-term political consequences.

No notable results in international politics could be seen either, except that two Koreas are now allowed to talk to each other. The promises of easing tensions with Russia and in the Middle East have not materialized. Other foreign policy acts have been about undoing deals that the previous governments made (NAFTA, Iran nuclear deal).

American establishment has so far reacted to Trump’s administration not as much to what it’s been done but rather to how it’s done. A large part of the establishment rejected Trump’s thriving on absolutism and chaos. And that’s good. Preventing a regression of the American republic toward a monarchy is good not only for the U.S. but for the world as well.

Trump’s resume is apparently gloomy. Are there any other takeaways, any credits he’s earned? I think there are some lying on the flip page of Trump’s liabilities.

To Your Face

Trump is the first President to speak openly his mind. In the past, instances of honesty were rare, including Eisenhower's talk about the military-industrial complex impacting American politics, and W. Bush’s acknowledgment of advantages of autocracy. However, Trump made this practice regular via tweeting and public speech. Trump spits out with no hesitation what other politicians just bear in mind or say just behind the closed door. This could be happening out of mere arrogance. Regardless, his raw thoughts are there for the public to judge. Here are some examples.

Trump says that the U.S. will keep supporting Saudi Arabia regardless of the international standing of the country’s ruler because they buy American weapons. Contrast that with the typical U.S. policy of playing publicly a guardian of human rights while actually supporting even the most oppressive regimes if they act in accord with American interest. This could be the dictator, oil exporter, big buyer, an enemy of America’s enemy, a careless seller of national assets, owner of a geopolitically relevant territory, etc. American governments are not choosy as long as the partner plays their game.

Trump also stopped playing the double game of a peacemaker in the Middle East with regard to relations between Israelis and Palestinians. He openly moved to the Israeli side, moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem (which is supposed to be a shared city), and thus he broke the cycle of hypocrisy entrapping the past U.S. presidents.

Moreover, Trump advised blatantly the NATO allies to contribute more money to the military pact. NATO has been touted as an alliance that serves the interest of all members, each of whom desires it equally with no second thought. However, the U.S. has been heavily footing the NATO bill in money and military resources. Perhaps so because NATO has served primarily a strategy of American global hegemony. Trump’s reasoning is dire straight: put the money where your mouth is! If it fails to chase out more contributions, his approach may show that NATO is not so desperately desired by the allies.

In a word, the Trumpian to-your-face frankness unveiled the ugly face of realpolitik as the driver of American global role. Not a big news for an educated critical thinker. Still, let’s keep in mind that such a person is a rare entity in the country with politically undereducated citizens who are regularly brain-washed.

The mission of past Presidents was to make the folks believe that America has always stuck to the high moral ground, having humanity in mind as the ultimate goal, even when that meant destroying millions of people and entire countries overseas. Trump’s awkward honesty breaks the self-aggrandizing illusion.

Lying Conundrum

Another good consequence of the Trumpism is publicizing that high politics involves lying. This is where a war between the so-called liberal media, on one side, and conservative media and Trump, on the other, have played a key role. A fact-checking order was issued to liberal media as early as in the election run by the opposing presidential candidate. CNN, Washington Post, and The New York Times took on the job quite seriously. They tracked zig-zag trajectories of Trump’s statements and voiced lots of “Aha!”. In contrast, conservative media (Fox News and a number of the radio- and Internet-based outlets) endeavored to counter each point.

Checking and balancing powers is a basic mechanism of democracy. So, it is desirable to question politicians’ statements. However, the media have acted in a confusing way by taking extreme positions. Both on the left and the right spectrum of media, the balancing act of covering different views has given way to partisanship. The opposing media keep accusing each other of “fake news”, while each side is claiming the exclusive right on absolute truth. What's really happening behind this truth-loving quest?

While conservative media uncritically praise Trump, liberal media strive to prove that Trump’s lying is extraordinary as if there exists a typical American politician speaking facts (truth) only. News consumers are supposed to believe that a truth-telling politician is embodied in the interviewees that spray verbal bullets on Trump’s statements and moves. 

Let’s play the media’s game. Fact: Politics is always about lying because a politician deals with antagonistic groups. Let’s assume there are two groups with opposed interests. If a politician promises fulfillment of the group interest to both sides, he must be lying to one of them. But a politician must do exactly that or risk losing the support of the frustrated group.

Politicians lie all the time and take that as part and parcel of the job. Facts and the truth are not the essential part of representing political interest, deal-making, and compromising to shape the legislation. Rather, facts are mixed with semi-facts, lies, ideological and self-interest biases, unwarranted promises, hidden connotations, obscured agendas, and so on. Quite a dramatic contrast to a virginal purity of facts-based politics that the media on both sides serve to the public. However, the anti-Trump media play on American culture.

Tango of Hypocrisy

American Presidents live under a glass bell; the nation and the world watch them keenly. A president is supposed to embody values of the national culture. Take marital fidelity, for example, and recall the former President Bill Clinton who was impeached for an act that in some other countries would be considered merely a juicy story.

Not lying is also an American cultural value. In everyday life, most Americans behave accordingly. However, it is tacitly accepted that certain social areas are not bullet-proof (politics, law, business, management). While public relations (PR, propagandistic) spins are regular in politics, liberal media amplify them since the top officer inside the glass bell should not lie, ahem, openly. Thus, these media perpetuate a drama in which the protagonist they construct is violating the culture.

Former presidents managed to mask their spins and to tango in lock-step with media. Call this a tango of hypocrisy, if you wish. But that’s how culture works, a china store that very much defines any society. There then comes elephant Trump and tweet-sprays the store from the trenches of his office, bedroom, toilet… 

The critics deem Trump's behavior as uncultivated and arrogant while grinning at the donation of lots of anti-Trump ammunition that Trump gives away. However, the opponents judge this as a welcome refreshment within the ossified Washington establishment.

Spinner’s Truth

Journalism is on a slippery slope of truthfulness by the nature of its work. Journalists struggle to construct a journalistic truth, based on evidence they can capture in a speedy and messy journalistic workflow. Coming up with undisputable social facts is hard to do even in more contemplative environments of a historian or social scientist (both admit incompleteness of findings though). However, news media are at the bottom of the truth scale, just a notch above politicians.

Journalists act upon hastily collected evidence from preset, filtered and partially automated sources of informing. Journalists readily cite hunches, rumors and subjective impressions as if these are fully baked facts. Causal connections between co-occurring events are made on the fly, subjective conclusions declared the truth. And yes, career-minded journalists compete for that alluring best story.

Enter institutional factors. Media owners aim at increasing their advertising income and social capital (connections in the economic and political worlds). Agendas drive the source selection and analysis even in the basic coverage of an event’s W’s (who, what, where, when, and why). And any medium is subject to a certain ideology as it’s crystal clear in the current split among American media. This institutional context presses media professionals to fit the given way or hit the highway.

The end result is that the business of informing involves spin doctoring. The worst case of it is when an ambitious journalist purposely embraces a medium’s agenda for story-making (for example, the civil war in Bosnia and the war in Syria). Still, the journalistic establishment tends to accolade such fictionalized journalism with prestigious awards. Paradoxical? Not really. The business of media is reality construction rather than description.

The spinner’s preaching of fact/truth is hardly more credible than the political PR. But it’s certainly more deceiving. Taking a critical look at media is plausibly another useful takeaway from the period of Trumpism.

*
Just two American presidents were impeached by the House (Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton) and both were acquitted by the Senate. Richard Nixon was forced to resign due to a looming impeachment ensuing the Watergate scandal. It remains to be seen which way Donald Trump will go. As investigations on him escalate, the Russian Connection reality may become unnecessary for removing him from the office. Turning the American republic into an autocracy has failed. Still, the country's political system needs fixing. But that’s a topic for another blog.


Monday, May 29, 2017

Realities Showtime

By Bob Travica

A man with a pillow of heavily sprayed blond hair covering his head stared at his face in the mirror, pointed his index finger toward it, and yelled, “you’re fired!” This scene happened in the episode The 100th Day of the reality show Apprentice in the White House.

At the same time, another TV channel played the reality Russian Connection with CNN anchors in the lead role. A choir of journalists was chanting: Im-peee-aaa-chment!…

And yet another reality titled Die Hard Cold Warriors played across channels, featuring politicians and alleged experts with their mind stuck in the past.

Apprentice in the White House

Since the beginning of 2017 and a new crew’s settling in the White House, we are overwhelmed with reality shows. First of all, the new President Donald Trump continued playing his favorite reality role but now in the White House. True, the scene above is this author’s scenario. But if Mr. Trump is true to his business executive role in Apprentice, he should fire himself.

In the first 100 days of President Trump’s reign, he did not inch toward accomplishing any of his campaign promises – border security, health care reform, or a change of course in foreign policy. I am not judging yet whether this is good or bad, just saying that he didn’t deliver, as he as a CEO would expect from his apprentices. And there is a bunch of other fights lost, for the time being, the more notable being the war on media, and reshuffling the intelligence agencies’ empire.

Has President Trump tried? Oh yeah, and maybe too much for really a short time. Trump acted as a bankruptcy executive tasked to turn a company around overnight. And that’s where the indication of the true trouble with Mr. Trump lies. It is not as much in the fact that President Trump’s actions failed as it is in his dogged insisting on executive orders. Trump attempted to resolve big political issues by bypassing the entire political system and running the country like his own company. While constitutionally legitimate, his executive orders didn’t work. Aggregation of political interests and support building takes a skill, hard negotiation, and art of deal making (supposedly a strength of businessman Trump). But we’ve seen none of this. President Trump’s method failed so far, and I’d say for good. Otherwise, the American political system would have indicated a turn from the republic to a monarchy.

In other words, President Trump has shown very clearly that, thus far, he cannot move a bit the Washington political establishment from its status-quo. Yet, his chief differentiating characteristic during the election campaign was that he was a fresh, unorthodox politician who was going to shake up the establishment. Let’s take foreign policy as an example of this resilient inertia. Although it never played a big role in differentiating American politicians, foreign policy might turn to be Trump’s deadly frailty.

Russian Connection

Trump was going to release the pressure on the Middle East, Europe, and Russia and to focus on the Far East. But look what’s happening. He fires dozens of missiles on a Syrian military’s base (and some Russians in it), tones down the NATO-bashing rhetoric (except for the cost sharing grudge), and can’t engage Russia in anything. On the contrary, Trump is getting cornered by the reality Russian Connection, an endless saga about the alleged influence of Russia in American Presidential elections. CNN, The Washington Post, The New York Times and other media heavyweights are peddling the show. It keeps citing/leaking known and never-to-be-known sources, parading supposed experts, and never tiring of twists and turns.

In spite of the media’s usual pretense on the exclusive truth, evidence used in Russian Connection is weaker than plot logic in a detective mystery paperback. For instance, the main intelligence report produced by three security agencies (FBI, CIA, and NSA), which was leaked to the public last January and embraced with glee by the media, is merely a C-grade work (https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3254237/Russia-Hack-Report.pdf). It is based on the spies’ hear-say, without material evidence, and without a substantiated, shared conclusion. Its main point is that actions of Russian intelligence worked against candidate Hillary Clinton and in favor of candidate Trump. 

The report wastes some 50% of the space on criticizing the cable network Russia TV (RT). Watch this! American spies discovered that a state-budgeted TV station, which broadcasts globally, may influence Joe Does’ mind. Well, I can definitely see some issues here. First, I figure that some spies were crushing the couch for watching carefully a propaganda program. Is this really the best way to spend the spying buck? Another alarming issue is that the RT-watching spies may get influenced by the very same propaganda they spy on, if it’s indeed so powerful. Yet another perfidious way of Russia’s meddling with the American state, which the security agencies sucked in?

The intelligence report further makes a curious excursion into a troll land. It asserts that the Russian intelligence did most of the damaging work via paid social media users or “trolls” (quotes in the original). A shadowy figure of Guccifer 2.0 is singled out and portrayed as an independent Romanian hacker who claimed to be a Russian, while he was actually more than one person. It is curious that the media didn’t pick this fairy-tallish twist since it is potentially a goldmine for the reality script. Just try to imagine the black magic wizard Putin commanding an army of social media trolls who block the way to good princess Hillary Clinton, so she can’t reach the throne. Trolls got under the skin (possibly in the hair expanse too) of Donald Trump and control him... I expect that the media put the trolls into Russian Connection as soon as they run out of juicy twists.

By the way, in spite of the horrendous propaganda and all the trolls and what have you, the intelligence report emphasizes that a judgment on the impact of Russia on the election results can’t be made because “the intelligence community does not analyze US political processes or US public opinion.” But the media know better, of course, so they already established such an impact. Russian Connection must be thrillingly assertive, not lukewarm iffy.

True, some parts of the scenario didn’t spin the plot as hoped. For example, the episode Trump Meets Mata Hari in Moscow didn’t blast as expected. CNN started a buzz on an intelligence report soon accessible on the Internet, which insinuated that Trump had sexual fun on his business trips to Russia; Russian agents videoed that, and now Trump is being blackmailed to support Russian interest. The report turned to be a total bogus. Clumsy scriptwriters never apologized to anyone.

Die Hard Cold Warriors

Russian Connection obscures a logical question, who is responsible for failing to prevent the alleged intrusions into the Presidential elections? Isn’t that an important question? It surely is, but the media playing Russian Connection haven’t even touched on it. Why? Well, this reality show can be fully understood in connection with its sibling - Die Hard Cold Warriors. The show features the old guard political likes of John McCain (Republican) and their somewhat younger followers, H. Clinton (Democrat) being the most visible. The actors reprimand and scold President Trump for his heretic thoughts of getting at better terms with Russia and cooling down the chaos in Syria. Just think of the recent episode Grandpa’s Advice.

Old Henry Kissinger visited President Trump in the White House before the President’s first foreign trip, and the media reported delightfully about Kissinger’s “schooling the President.” What could this schooling be about? Easy to guess. Something like: NATO is our great asset; we must keep protecting our allies in Europe; gotta sell them the missile interceptor system that can be lots of dough for us but it still sells hard; Russia can’t ever be a friend (why the interceptor system and NATO if we befriend her?); the torch of extremist Islam must keep burning in the Middle East and around, so that our international policing endures and we continue selling arms…

A clear message of Die Hard Cold Warriors is that no diversion from Cold War foreign policy can be. The U.S. must preserve its hegemony by continuing the active engagement in global affairs. Trump’s isolationist motto “America first” is just an apprentice’s dream. As a matter of fact, the apprentice has no means of fighting it out. Rather, he’s got his hands tied as he passed foreign policy making to Pentagon. And what do trigger-happy generals do? They fire 59 missiles on Syria, drop the largest bomb in Afghanistan, kill, injure, burn and destroy. President Trump’s political enemies applaud him, which makes no sense. Even an apprentice should be able to understand that.

Realities continue and it remains to be seen whether Apprentice in the White House will cast a makeover of the main character into a master. Could we see some of the touted deal-making skills of businessman Trump at play in politics? Still, Russian Connection and Die Hard Cold Warriors will be competing headlong to push Apprentice in the White House off the charts.